Ohio State lost, Georgia rolled and Miami survived. One wild Halloween Saturday has changed the College Football Playoff race just three days before the selection committee shows its hand for the first time. Football fans are searching for a “projected top 25” to see where their team might land when the first official CFP rankings come out on Tuesday night. Here is what we know: when the rankings drop, what the leading projections say, and which results from October 31 will matter most in the committee room.
Quick answer: The first 2026 College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed live on ESPN on Tuesday, November 3, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. ESPN’s post-Week 9 projection has unbeaten Miami (8-0) at No. 1, followed by Georgia, BYU, Notre Dame and Utah. Ohio State is projected to fall to No. 10 after its 30-18 loss at USC. Selection Day, when the 12-team field is set, is Sunday, December 6.
Why “projected top 25” is trending
Every year the first CFP ranking is one of the most debated nights of the college football season. The AP and coaches’ polls have been out since August, but the CFP committee’s list is the one that actually decides the 12-team playoff field. This year the debate is louder than usual for three reasons.
- The No. 2 team went down. USC beat Ohio State 30-18 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night, handing the Buckeyes their second loss. According to CBS Sports, Ohio State had not lost two games before November since 2011.
- Several unbeaten teams look very different. Miami, Utah and UCLA are all 8-0, but analysts disagree sharply on how strong their schedules have been.
- Big projection outlets disagree. ESPN, Yahoo Sports, USA Today, College Football News and Bleacher Report all published their own projected rankings this weekend, and their lists vary a lot after the top two.
When are the first CFP rankings released?
The committee releases its rankings every Tuesday from early November until Selection Day. All times below are Eastern and come from the official 2026 release schedule.
| Date | What happens | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Nov. 3 | First CFP rankings (live on ESPN) | 7:00–8:00 p.m. |
| Tuesday, Nov. 10 | Second rankings | 9:00–9:30 p.m. |
| Tuesday, Nov. 17 | Third rankings | 9:00–9:30 p.m. |
| Tuesday, Nov. 24 | Fourth rankings | 7:30–8:00 p.m. |
| Tuesday, Dec. 1 | Penultimate rankings | 7:00–7:30 p.m. |
| Sunday, Dec. 6 | Selection Day: 12-team field revealed | Noon–3:00 p.m. |
Projected first CFP rankings: ESPN’s top 12
ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who covers the committee closely, published her projection late on Saturday night after the final scores were in. Her approach tries to think the way the committee does: who teams beat, who they lost to, strength of schedule, and efficiency numbers. Records below include Saturday’s games.
| Projected rank | Team | Record | Key argument |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami | 8-0 | Unbeaten with four ACC road wins; schedule strength is the main question |
| 2 | Georgia | 7-1 | Road wins over Alabama and Florida; home loss to Auburn |
| 3 | BYU | 7-1 | Head-to-head win over Notre Dame; only loss in double OT at UCF |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 7-1 | Elite efficiency numbers, but lost to BYU |
| 5 | Utah | 8-0 | Explosive offense; one of the easiest schedules among contenders |
| 6 | Indiana | 8-1 | Elite defence; close loss to Ohio State, no ranked wins yet |
| 7 | UCLA | 8-0 | Unbeaten, but opponents have a weak combined record |
| 8 | Kentucky | 7-1 | Strong schedule and SEC road wins |
| 9 | Texas | 6-2 | Beat Ohio State, Tennessee and Ole Miss; back-to-back losses hurt |
| 10 | Ohio State | 6-2 | Losses came with starting QB Julian Sayin injured or sidelined |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 6-2 | Wins over LSU and Missouri; both losses on the road |
| 12 | LSU | 6-2 | Toughest remaining schedule, but no signature win yet |
Remember that this is a projection, not the real ranking. The committee meets before each release and often surprises the experts, especially with one-loss teams from different conferences.
Other projections: who agrees and who does not
The disagreement between outlets shows how open this race is.
- College Football News (via Yahoo Sports) moved Georgia to No. 1 in its own top 25 on Sunday, with UCLA No. 2, Utah No. 3 and Miami No. 4. It dropped Ohio State all the way from No. 1 to No. 15.
- Bleacher Report expects Georgia to climb to No. 2 behind Miami after its win over Florida, and says Indiana is still in the race for a top-four seed if it finishes with one loss.
- Yahoo Sports’ pre-Saturday projection had Ohio State at No. 3 and included Alabama and Boise State in its top 12. Saturday’s results are likely to change both of those spots.
The common thread: Miami and Georgia look safe in the top two or three, and Ohio State is almost certain to drop out of the top four.
The Saturday results that changed the race
Here are the October 31 games that will shape Tuesday’s list most. Scores are as reported by College Football News and CBS Sports.
| Result | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| USC 30, Ohio State 18 | Second loss for the Buckeyes; USC led 14-3 after the first quarter |
| Georgia 27, Florida 8 | Another statement win to go with Georgia’s road victory at Alabama |
| Miami 38, North Carolina 35 | Miami stays perfect, but the close finish feeds schedule doubts |
| Indiana 23, Minnesota 16 (OT) | Minnesota hit a 60-yard field goal to force OT; Indiana matched it with its own 60-yarder |
| Utah 49, Cincinnati 25 | Utah, the last unbeaten Big 12 team, dominated on the road |
| UCLA 27, Nevada 0 | Unbeaten, but a non-conference win does little for the resume |
| BYU 27, Arizona State 20 | Keeps BYU’s one-loss case alive |
| Notre Dame 35, Navy 13 | Notre Dame needs a top-12 finish to qualify as an independent |
| South Carolina 42, Oklahoma 25 | Oklahoma lost at home after allowing 28 first-half points |
| Iowa 30, Wisconsin 0 | Iowa’s Hank Brown went 20-of-24 for 222 yards and two TDs |
Ohio State’s quarterback question
The biggest debate for the committee could be Ohio State. ESPN notes that starter Julian Sayin was out for much of the Indiana game and missed the USC game through injury. The committee is allowed to consider player availability, so how much weight it gives to that could decide whether the Buckeyes sit near No. 10 or much lower.
Miami versus the “eye test”
Miami looks like the clear No. 1 on paper with an 8-0 record and two Heisman-calibre players, according to ESPN. But a three-point win over North Carolina will give critics more ammunition about a soft ACC schedule. If the committee leans on strength of schedule, Georgia could still open at No. 1.
How the 12-team playoff works
The playoff field has 12 teams. The five automatic places go to the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, plus the highest-ranked champion from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. The remaining seven places go to the highest-ranked teams in the final committee ranking. Notre Dame, as an independent, gets in only if it finishes in the top 12. The top four seeds earn a first-round bye, which is why spots No. 1 to No. 4 matter so much.
That group-of-five place is worth watching. Before Saturday, Yahoo Sports had Boise State in its top 12 as the projected highest-ranked champion from outside the power conferences.
What’s next
The committee will meet before Tuesday’s 7 p.m. ET reveal on ESPN. After that, the rankings will update every week, and big November games will reshape them again. LSU has the toughest remaining schedule according to ESPN, Indiana still has to earn its first ranked win, and Texas Tech, Iowa and Missouri are all lurking just outside the projected field. If you follow the NFL too, our Cowboys vs Eagles recap covers another team in a tough slide.
Frequently asked questions
What time do the first CFP rankings come out?
The first 2026 College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on ESPN on Tuesday, November 3, with the show running from 7:00 to 8:00 p.m. ET.
Who is projected No. 1 in the first CFP rankings?
ESPN’s projection has Miami (8-0) at No. 1, with Georgia (7-1) at No. 2. College Football News has Georgia No. 1 in its own top 25, so the top spot is still up for debate.
Where will Ohio State be ranked after losing to USC?
ESPN projects Ohio State (6-2) at No. 10. College Football News dropped the Buckeyes to No. 15 in its own ranking. The committee’s view of Julian Sayin’s injury may decide where they land.
How many teams make the College Football Playoff in 2026?
Twelve. Five conference champions qualify automatically and the next seven highest-ranked teams receive at-large places. The top four seeds get a first-round bye.
When is CFP Selection Day 2026?
Selection Day is Sunday, December 6, with coverage from noon to 3:00 p.m. ET, when the committee reveals the full 12-team bracket.
Sources: ESPN, College Football News via Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, FBSchedules.com, Fox Sports.
