America’s five biggest Western oil companies just had one of the most profitable quarters in their history, while drivers are still paying more than $4 a gallon for gasoline days before the midterm elections. That gap between record refinery profits and painful prices at the pump has made “gas prices” one of the most-searched terms this week, and President Trump’s comment that the country is “making a frickin fortune” from high oil prices has turned it into a political fight. Here is what the companies actually earned, why your fuel bill is so high, and what could bring prices down.
Quick answer: ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies earned a combined $56.3 billion in adjusted net income in the third quarter of 2026, according to Bloomberg data, the third-highest total on record. Much of it came from refining, because the war with Iran and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have knocked out roughly 10% of the world’s fuel-making capacity. The AAA national average for regular gas was $4.20 a gallon on October 30, down from about $4.43 a month earlier but well above $3.03 a year ago.
What the oil companies reported
The big US and European oil majors reported third-quarter results over the past few days, and all five beat analysts’ expectations, according to Bloomberg. The standout theme was refining. Normally the upstream business of pumping oil and gas is where these companies make most of their money. This quarter, refineries stole the show.
- ExxonMobil earned $15.4 billion on a reported (GAAP) basis and $17.5 billion excluding one-off items, or $4.23 a share. Its refining division earned a record of about $9.1 billion, almost five times the level of a year earlier, and for the first time in at least six years it out-earned Exxon’s oil and gas production. We broke down the full results in our ExxonMobil Q3 2026 earnings explainer.
- Chevron reported earnings of $9.9 billion ($5.06 a share) and adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion ($5.28 a share). Its downstream (refining and marketing) business earned $4.9 billion, about four times the level a year earlier, with $3.6 billion of that from the US.
- BP posted adjusted net income of $8.46 billion, its highest in 18 years according to Bloomberg, with more than half coming from refining and trading.
- Shell and TotalEnergies also beat forecasts, helping lift the five-company total to $56.3 billion.
Q3 2026 at a glance
| Company | Q3 2026 profit | Refining highlight |
|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | $15.4B reported; $17.5B adjusted ($4.23/share) | Record ~$9.1B from refining, ~5x a year earlier |
| Chevron | $9.9B reported; $10.4B adjusted ($5.28/share) | Downstream $4.9B, ~4x a year earlier |
| BP | $8.46B adjusted | More than half from refining and trading; 18-year high |
| Shell, TotalEnergies | Beat expectations | Strong refining contribution |
| Five majors combined | $56.3B adjusted | Third-highest combined quarter on record |
Figures from company releases and Bloomberg data. Adjusted figures exclude one-off items.
Why gas prices are so high
Prices at the pump depend on two things: the price of crude oil, and the cost of turning that crude into gasoline and diesel. This year both have been pushed up by war.
1. The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz
Fighting between the US, Israel and Iran began in late February 2026 and is now in its ninth month. The conflict halted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel that previously carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas, according to the Associated Press. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped from about $70 a barrel to above $100 for much of the spring and peaked at $126. Bloomberg reports that international oil prices are still up almost 60% since the attacks began.
2. A global refinery shortage
The bigger reason for this quarter’s profits is a shortage of refining capacity. About 10% of the world’s fuel-making capacity has been sidelined by Middle East fighting and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, according to Bloomberg. When there are fewer refineries to meet the same demand, the gap between crude prices and finished fuel prices (known as the “crack spread”) widens. Companies that own large, working refineries, especially on the US Gulf Coast, collect that gap as profit.
That is why Exxon’s Gulf Coast plants ran at full capacity and why Chevron’s US downstream business had its best quarter in years. “The return on refining, on a percentage basis, has skyrocketed,” Tom Seng of Texas Christian University told the AP earlier this year.
3. Diesel is even worse
Diesel has been hit hardest. AAA data cited by Fox Business shows the national average for diesel hit a record $6.52 a gallon on September 22. It was still about $6.35 in late October, according to AAA figures reported by Newsweek. Because diesel moves trucks, trains and farm equipment, those costs feed into the price of almost everything else.
Gas prices by the numbers
| Measure | Price / change | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Regular gas, national average (Oct 30, 2026) | $4.20/gal | AAA via Fox Business |
| Regular gas, one month earlier | ~$4.43/gal | AAA via Fox Business |
| Regular gas, one year earlier | ~$3.03/gal | AAA via Fox Business |
| 2026 peak (mid-September) | ~$4.49/gal | GasBuddy via Forbes |
| Diesel record | $6.52/gal (Sept 22, 2026) | AAA via Fox Business |
| Gasoline inflation, September CPI | +34.2% year over year | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Before the Iran war (Feb 2026) | Below $3/gal for a few weeks | AAA via Forbes |
Forbes, using AAA data, also reported that the average gas price across Trump’s second term ($3.4712) has now edged above the average across Biden’s term ($3.4703), by less than a tenth of a cent.
Why it is trending: Trump’s “fortune” comment
The earnings landed in the middle of a heated campaign. At a rally in Perry, Georgia, on October 24, Trump said: “I don’t give a damn, I’m gonna say it: We’re making a frickin fortune,” adding that “our country is making hundreds of billions of dollars because of what’s happened in the Middle East.” He said his advisers had urged him not to mention it because “people are paying a little higher,” and said he expected gas prices to fall.
Critics seized on the remarks, and CNN reported this week that Big Oil shareholders, including Trump himself, are benefiting from the windfall. Voters are clearly unhappy. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted October 12 to 19 found that 73% of likely voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of gas prices, according to Newsweek. Fox Business host Larry Kudlow has argued that media coverage “overemphasizes gasoline prices while ignoring a robust consumer spending boom.”
The windfall tax debate
In March, Democrats introduced bills to tax major oil producers’ profits from 2026 onward and return the money to consumers. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island leads the Senate version and Rep. Ro Khanna of California the House version. The bills would apply a per-barrel tax to companies that produced or imported at least 300,000 barrels a day in 2025. “It’s fair to put a windfall profits tax on inordinate windfall profits rather than cut off children’s food programs,” Whitehouse told the AP. The bills have not advanced in the Republican-controlled Congress.
Oil companies argue windfall taxes backfire. Exxon CEO Darren Woods has said the company cancelled planned European investments after the UK and EU imposed windfall taxes in 2022.
Where the money is going
Unlike in 2022, when record profits triggered huge buyback increases, the companies are being more cautious this time.
- ExxonMobil raised its dividend for the 44th year in a row and plans $20 billion of share buybacks in 2027, the same pace as 2026.
- Chevron held buybacks at $2.5 billion for the quarter, the low end of its guidance, and for the second straight quarter used much of the extra cash to pay down debt, according to Bloomberg. It declared a $1.78 quarterly dividend, payable December 10.
- Chevron also said it expects about 300,000 barrels a day from Venezuela by year-end, part of its push to grow supply.
“We delivered strong operational performance and disciplined execution, while continuing to invest to grow energy supply,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said in the company’s results release.
What could bring gas prices down?
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz: A ceasefire or a durable reopening of shipping lanes would likely cut crude prices fastest.
- Refineries coming back online: As damaged plants in the Middle East and Russia are repaired, crack spreads should narrow, which would hit refiners’ profits but help drivers.
- Seasonal demand: US gasoline demand usually eases after the summer driving season, and prices have already slipped from the September peak.
- Policy moves: Ideas such as fuel export limits or windfall taxes are possible after the midterms on Tuesday, November 3, but none is in place today.
The fuel squeeze also matters for the tech industry, which is building power-hungry AI data centres at record pace. We explored that in why electricity is now AI’s biggest bottleneck.
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Energy stocks and fuel prices can move sharply. Do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average gas price in the US right now?
AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.20 a gallon on Friday, October 30, 2026. That is down from about $4.43 a month earlier but roughly $1.17 higher than a year ago.
How much did Big Oil make in Q3 2026?
ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies earned a combined $56.3 billion in adjusted net income, according to Bloomberg data. That is the third-highest combined quarterly total on record.
Why are refineries making so much money?
About 10% of global refining capacity has been knocked offline by the Middle East conflict and attacks on Russian refineries. With less fuel being made, the gap between crude oil prices and gasoline and diesel prices has widened, and companies with working refineries keep the difference.
What did Trump say about gas prices?
At an October 24 rally in Georgia, Trump said the US is “making a frickin fortune” from high oil prices and that his advisers had told him not to mention it because people are paying more. He said he expects gas prices to come down.
Will gas prices go down before winter?
Prices have already eased from their September peak, but nobody can say for sure. The biggest factors are whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal and how quickly damaged refineries restart.
Sources: Bloomberg (via Energy Connects), Associated Press (via PBS NewsHour), Chevron Q3 2026 results release, ExxonMobil Q3 2026 results, Fox Business, Newsweek, Forbes, CNN, Google Trends.
